The Chilean currency had a weakening performance today, as the copper, one of the main exports of the South American nation declined, damping demand for the peso.
Chile is the world’s main copper producer, and today, most of metallic commodities dropped, as deposits are rising, causing a less intense demand to correct the price of Chile’s main metal export. Due to copper’s performance, the Chilean currency traded in a one-week low versus the U.S. dollar.
USD/CLP traded at 533.15 as of 18:55 GMT but reached 536.87 hours later, the lowest price in seven days.
If you want to comment on the Chilean peso’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.
South African Rand Climbs on Corporative Fusion Speculations
The South African Rand climbed sharply today as a stake in one of the main South African mobile operators may be purchased by an Indian group, injecting money in the country and raising confidence for the rand outlook.
Bharti Airtel Ltd. is the main mobile-phone operator in India, and would be interested in purchasing a stake in MTN, the leading mobile telecommunications company in Africa, Headquartered in the rand’s nation, helping the South African currency to reach an eleven-month high versus the U.S. dollar, since, if this fusion will be confirmed, investments of over $7 billion are expected to be done in the country’s telecommunications industry.
USD/ZAR traded at 7.6645 as of 19:10 GMT from a opening rate today of 7.7365.
If you want to comment on the South African rand’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.
Bharti Airtel Ltd. is the main mobile-phone operator in India, and would be interested in purchasing a stake in MTN, the leading mobile telecommunications company in Africa, Headquartered in the rand’s nation, helping the South African currency to reach an eleven-month high versus the U.S. dollar, since, if this fusion will be confirmed, investments of over $7 billion are expected to be done in the country’s telecommunications industry.
USD/ZAR traded at 7.6645 as of 19:10 GMT from a opening rate today of 7.7365.
If you want to comment on the South African rand’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.
Asian Market Update
Korea Q2 GDP leaps to 5-year high, Samsung and Hynix earnings top forecasts; Asia equities shrug weak Microsoft, Amazon top line
Asian equity markets are looking to cap a strong week of gains with a final Friday rally, as bullish bias overcame soft revenue reports from Microsoft, Amazon and American Express. All three US giants shed over 5% after reporting afterhours, while front-month S&Ps traded about 0.5% lower below $965 on expectations of profit-taking. Asian bourses are undeterred however, with basic materials and tech leading the chase of the strong market hours session on Wall St. With just 90 minutes to go, Nikkei225 and S&P/ASX are both up about 1% and Korea's Kospi is up 0.4% above 1,500 despite solid economic and corporate results.
South Korea's Q2 Preliminary GDP offered more evidence of the economy on the mend, coming in at 2.3% on q/q basis - the highest rate of growth since Q4 of 2003. The figure also topped 2.2% consensus estimates, marking the primary economic event in an otherwise data-light session. Recall Korea has narrowly dodged a recession in Q1 with a final 0.1% print, helped by one of the most generous stimulus packages as measured on a relative to historic GDP levels basis. Once again however, local officials remained remarkably cautious following the strong Q2 growth data. Bank of Korea's Kim warned that domestic demand could still slow because of ongoing challenges presented by the slumping jobs market. In turn, the local finance ministry suggested that despite the data, it was not yet appropriate to consider an exit strategy from the fiscal stimulus.
In Korea's corporate sector, chipmakers Samsung and Hynix bolstered the case for tech leading the regional export economies out of recession. Hynix reported Q2 net loss of KRW50.7B - more than half below the loss of KRW108.8B expected - while sales topped estimates of KRWT1.54e at KRW1.7T. Hynix saw its NAND memory prices rise 23% q/q and shipments improve 40% for the reporting quarter. Looking forward, Hynix saw more favorable business conditions in the second half with a 20% DRAM price increase even as shipments were only forecasted to rise in the single digits. Samsung Q2 results appeared even more impressive, with net profit rising to KRW2.3T v KRW1.7T expected and sales coming in at KRW21T v KRW20T expected. Recall Q1 Net profit was KRW619B and Sales were seen at KRW18.6T. Specifically, Q2 chip sales were KRW5.05T v KRW4.5T expected and LCD sales came in at KRW4.6T v KRW4.5T expected. Looking to Q3, Samsung expected DRAM prices to continue rising in low teens, TV panel prices to rise mid-single digits, and NAND prices to remain flat. Despite the results, the company did say it would stay cautious on the remainder of 2009 amid potential headwinds from rising won and competition.
Outside Korea, Japan's finance minister Yosano cheered strong exports figures released in the prior session. Among notable Nikkei names, Fujitsu picked up 6% after a 1-yr price target upgrade from Goldman Sachs, and Advantest rallied 5% after Japanese press speculated the company's chip-testing equipment topped ¥10B in the current quarter. In Sydney, Australia's trade minister warned that trade relations with China were threatened by ongoing detainment of Rio Tinto workers. Separately, a US think tank speculated that Rio Tinto's Hu is most likely to be deported as persona non grata rather than stand trial. Other regional officials continued to down play Australia's rift with China however. According to local press, West Australian Premier Colin Barnett assured Chinalco president Xiong Weiping of special attention extended to Chinese investors, with the feature also noting that despite its failed bid for Rio Tinto, Chinalco is still looking to invest in Australia's mining resources. In Aussie equities, Woodside Petroleum rallied 1.5% on more crude strength even though Q2 sales came in at A$938M, shy of A$1.09B in the prior quarter.
In currencies, USD consolidated the sharp gains seen against European and commodity majors in late US hours. EUR/USD traded between 1.4140-80, down from 1.4280 intraday peak. GBP/USD remained just below 1.65 and USD/CHD traded around 1.0740, while in commodity FX, USD/CAD pared some of the post-BOC outlook drop, retesting the upside of 1.09. AUD/USD bounced higher from 0.8110 to 0.8150, and NZD/USD was in a thin 0.6520-60 range. Japanese Yen traded slightly firmer, with uSD/JPY falling to 94.60 from 95.20 session high.
Crude oil prices are lower, but have moved off of their worst levels. Oil prices are tracking the weakness in S&P 500 Futures, following the results from technology heavyweight Microsoft. Spot gold prices are little changed and trading around $950/oz, as the EUR/USD currency pair has been range bound for most of the session.
Asian equity markets are looking to cap a strong week of gains with a final Friday rally, as bullish bias overcame soft revenue reports from Microsoft, Amazon and American Express. All three US giants shed over 5% after reporting afterhours, while front-month S&Ps traded about 0.5% lower below $965 on expectations of profit-taking. Asian bourses are undeterred however, with basic materials and tech leading the chase of the strong market hours session on Wall St. With just 90 minutes to go, Nikkei225 and S&P/ASX are both up about 1% and Korea's Kospi is up 0.4% above 1,500 despite solid economic and corporate results.
South Korea's Q2 Preliminary GDP offered more evidence of the economy on the mend, coming in at 2.3% on q/q basis - the highest rate of growth since Q4 of 2003. The figure also topped 2.2% consensus estimates, marking the primary economic event in an otherwise data-light session. Recall Korea has narrowly dodged a recession in Q1 with a final 0.1% print, helped by one of the most generous stimulus packages as measured on a relative to historic GDP levels basis. Once again however, local officials remained remarkably cautious following the strong Q2 growth data. Bank of Korea's Kim warned that domestic demand could still slow because of ongoing challenges presented by the slumping jobs market. In turn, the local finance ministry suggested that despite the data, it was not yet appropriate to consider an exit strategy from the fiscal stimulus.
In Korea's corporate sector, chipmakers Samsung and Hynix bolstered the case for tech leading the regional export economies out of recession. Hynix reported Q2 net loss of KRW50.7B - more than half below the loss of KRW108.8B expected - while sales topped estimates of KRWT1.54e at KRW1.7T. Hynix saw its NAND memory prices rise 23% q/q and shipments improve 40% for the reporting quarter. Looking forward, Hynix saw more favorable business conditions in the second half with a 20% DRAM price increase even as shipments were only forecasted to rise in the single digits. Samsung Q2 results appeared even more impressive, with net profit rising to KRW2.3T v KRW1.7T expected and sales coming in at KRW21T v KRW20T expected. Recall Q1 Net profit was KRW619B and Sales were seen at KRW18.6T. Specifically, Q2 chip sales were KRW5.05T v KRW4.5T expected and LCD sales came in at KRW4.6T v KRW4.5T expected. Looking to Q3, Samsung expected DRAM prices to continue rising in low teens, TV panel prices to rise mid-single digits, and NAND prices to remain flat. Despite the results, the company did say it would stay cautious on the remainder of 2009 amid potential headwinds from rising won and competition.
Outside Korea, Japan's finance minister Yosano cheered strong exports figures released in the prior session. Among notable Nikkei names, Fujitsu picked up 6% after a 1-yr price target upgrade from Goldman Sachs, and Advantest rallied 5% after Japanese press speculated the company's chip-testing equipment topped ¥10B in the current quarter. In Sydney, Australia's trade minister warned that trade relations with China were threatened by ongoing detainment of Rio Tinto workers. Separately, a US think tank speculated that Rio Tinto's Hu is most likely to be deported as persona non grata rather than stand trial. Other regional officials continued to down play Australia's rift with China however. According to local press, West Australian Premier Colin Barnett assured Chinalco president Xiong Weiping of special attention extended to Chinese investors, with the feature also noting that despite its failed bid for Rio Tinto, Chinalco is still looking to invest in Australia's mining resources. In Aussie equities, Woodside Petroleum rallied 1.5% on more crude strength even though Q2 sales came in at A$938M, shy of A$1.09B in the prior quarter.
In currencies, USD consolidated the sharp gains seen against European and commodity majors in late US hours. EUR/USD traded between 1.4140-80, down from 1.4280 intraday peak. GBP/USD remained just below 1.65 and USD/CHD traded around 1.0740, while in commodity FX, USD/CAD pared some of the post-BOC outlook drop, retesting the upside of 1.09. AUD/USD bounced higher from 0.8110 to 0.8150, and NZD/USD was in a thin 0.6520-60 range. Japanese Yen traded slightly firmer, with uSD/JPY falling to 94.60 from 95.20 session high.
Crude oil prices are lower, but have moved off of their worst levels. Oil prices are tracking the weakness in S&P 500 Futures, following the results from technology heavyweight Microsoft. Spot gold prices are little changed and trading around $950/oz, as the EUR/USD currency pair has been range bound for most of the session.
Dollar Drops despite Positive Data from U.S
The Dollar’s downtrend continued yesterday as the USD dropped against all the major currencies. The Dollar’s most distinct bearish trend was marked against the GBP, as the pair was traded as high as the 1.6620 level.
Euro fails above $1.40
After a roughly two week stint flirting mostly above the $1.40 level, the Euro has fallen back to a current rate at $1.3834 (June 16). The Euro has steadily dropped from a peak over $1.43 on June 2nd. It has operated on a downward progression from the $1.40 level for the last three days.
US dollar struggles to gain ground on yen
As part of its overall weakness, the US dollar is having a difficult time piercing the 100 yen level. After topping the century mark in early April, and then again in early may, the greenback has steadily fallen back from the level. In mid-May, one dollar was worth 94 yen. After a modest bounce, in the last couple days, the value of a dollar is currently (Jun 19) at 96.57 yen.
TODAY'S FOREX
Eur/usd - 1.3952 ... European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber said there was no need at present for the central bank to bypass the banking channel n buy up corporate bonds and indicated there was no credit crunch in Germany at the moment. Although the single currency weakened fm 1.4051 to as low as 1.3928, downside was limited somewhat as bids by European n sovereign names remain at 1.3910/20 with some stops seen below 1.3900 but more buying interest is located at 1.3880/85. On the upside, offers are reported at 1.4000/05 n 1.4040/50.
Usd/jpy - 94.88 ... The greenback weakened on renewed cross buying in jpy on risk aversion due the selloff in U.S. equities (Dow Jones index fell by 102 points to 8322). Offers are noted at 95.10/15 n 95.40/45 with stops are tipped at 95.50. On the downside bids are reported at 94.65/70 with stops are located below 94.50.
Eur/usd - 1.3957 ... Although the single currency retreated fm 1.4051 on cross trading, buying interest by European n sovereign names is reported at 1.3940/50 n further out at 1.3905/10 with stops only emerging below 1.3870/75. Trading volume is relatively thin due to current lack of directional movements as investors are focusing on the weekend's G8 summit. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 1.4000/10 n 1.4040/50 with some stops seen abv the latter level.
Gbp/usd - 1.6174 ... The British pound rebounded briefly to 1.6260 on initial firmness in European equities, however, cable found renewed selling interest there n fell again in U.S. morning as both European n U.S. equities turned into negative territories. Offers are now noted at 1.6200/10, 1.6230 n 1.6250/60 with stops building up abv 1.6300. On the downside, bids are reported at 1.6145/50 with stops seen below 1.6090/00.
Eur/usd - 1.3979 ... Despite euro's brief drop to 1.3903, subsequent rebound on short-covering in part due to the bounce in crude oil price n the firmness in global stock markets (European equities rose by more than 1% n Dow Jones futures strengthened by 19 points) lifted the single currency. The release of much stronger-than-expected German industrial production (rose by 4.4% versus the forecast of 0.5%) gave an extra boost to the euro. Bids by European n sovereign names are noted at 1.3940 n 1.3910 with stops seen below 1.3900. On the upside, offers are located at 1.3990/95 with some stops seen abv 1.4000.
Usd/jpy - 94.88 ... The greenback weakened on renewed cross buying in jpy on risk aversion due the selloff in U.S. equities (Dow Jones index fell by 102 points to 8322). Offers are noted at 95.10/15 n 95.40/45 with stops are tipped at 95.50. On the downside bids are reported at 94.65/70 with stops are located below 94.50.
Eur/usd - 1.3957 ... Although the single currency retreated fm 1.4051 on cross trading, buying interest by European n sovereign names is reported at 1.3940/50 n further out at 1.3905/10 with stops only emerging below 1.3870/75. Trading volume is relatively thin due to current lack of directional movements as investors are focusing on the weekend's G8 summit. On the upside, some offers are tipped at 1.4000/10 n 1.4040/50 with some stops seen abv the latter level.
Gbp/usd - 1.6174 ... The British pound rebounded briefly to 1.6260 on initial firmness in European equities, however, cable found renewed selling interest there n fell again in U.S. morning as both European n U.S. equities turned into negative territories. Offers are now noted at 1.6200/10, 1.6230 n 1.6250/60 with stops building up abv 1.6300. On the downside, bids are reported at 1.6145/50 with stops seen below 1.6090/00.
Eur/usd - 1.3979 ... Despite euro's brief drop to 1.3903, subsequent rebound on short-covering in part due to the bounce in crude oil price n the firmness in global stock markets (European equities rose by more than 1% n Dow Jones futures strengthened by 19 points) lifted the single currency. The release of much stronger-than-expected German industrial production (rose by 4.4% versus the forecast of 0.5%) gave an extra boost to the euro. Bids by European n sovereign names are noted at 1.3940 n 1.3910 with stops seen below 1.3900. On the upside, offers are located at 1.3990/95 with some stops seen abv 1.4000.
Gbp/usd - 1.6172 ... Despite cable's brief drop to 1.6149 after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.K. industrial n manufacturing production data, short-covering lifted the pair n bids are now noted at 1.6150, 1.6120 n 1.6100 with stops building up below 1.6090. On the upside, offers are reported at 1.6240 n 1.6290/95 with stops placed abv 1.6300...
Usd/jpy - 95.34...Dlr has been relatively quiet in Asia with traders citing a lack of fresh news n also thin volume ahead of the G-8 meeting which commences tomorrow. Offers remain at 95.50 with stops placed abv there n also abv 95.70 (more selling interest fm exporters is tipped at 96.00). Bids are lined up at 95.00 n also further out at 94.50 (sizeable). The Nikkei-225 has fallen back into negative territory following a brief foray abv the 9700 lvl (the index is currently down 27 points at 9653)...
Aud/usd - 0.7968...Aussie dipped briefly to 0.7947/50 after RBA left interest rates unchanged at 3.00% as anticipated. The central bank's accompanying statement said the outlook for inflation allows scope for further easing n that economic conditions in Australia are not as weak as expected a few months ago. Bids are reported at 0.7850/60 while a mixture of offers n stops is lined up at 0.8000/10...
Gbp/usd - 1.6257...Cable rebounded strongly fm y'day's low at 1.6095 with some traders citing option-defensive buying around 1.6100 (sizeable stops are building up below the 1.6000 lvl) n although sterling has retreated fm Australian morning high at 1.6298, bids are noted at 1.6230/40 n also 1.6200 (fair-size). On the upside, offers are likely to emerge at 1.6300 with larger orders (some are fm European names) tipped at 1.6340/50...
Eur/usd - 1.3954...Although euro fell to a 2-week low y'day at 1.3876 on risk aversion (latest comments fm European officials have centred on the risks to the global economic recovery), the single currency rebounded in N.Y. with investors encouraged by stronger-than-expected ISM (non-manufacturing) data. Bids are seen nearby at 1.3940/50 n buying interest is also tipped at 1.3900. Stops are building up abv 1.4000 with offers reported at 1.4050/60...
Usd/jpy - 95.30...Dlr retreated fm 95.42 to 95.11 in Australia b4 rebounding on buying fm Japanese investors n further consolidation abv y'day's low at 94.66 is likely in Asia. Bids fm importers are lined up at 95.00/10 n also further out at 94.50 while on the upside, offers at 95.50 are in focus with stops placed abv 95.70. More selling interest (fm exporters) are reported in the region of 96.00-96.20. Nikkei-225 n Dow futures are currently trading in negative territory.
- Tuesday, July 7, 2009
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USD Advances as Equities Tumble
7/7/2009 1:00 PM: EUR/$..1.3948 $/JPY..94.95 GBP/$..1.6146 $/CHF..1.0863 AUD/$..0.7959 $/CAD..1.1630
The dollar advanced against the pound and the euro, rising to session highs by afternoon trading amid further losses in the US equity bourses. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were all lower by more than 1.2% as questions over the prospects for a global economic recovery continue to linger. Crude oil extended its losses and remaining mired beneath the $70 per barrel level, tumbling to $62.38 per barrel.
Safe haven flows continued to dictate direction in the foreign exchange market with the Australian dollar, euro and sterling tracking equities lower. Risk aversion will be the key driver of forex flows over the coming weeks as traders digest incoming economic reports to gauge the prospects for an economic rebound.
The dollar advanced against the pound and the euro, rising to session highs by afternoon trading amid further losses in the US equity bourses. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were all lower by more than 1.2% as questions over the prospects for a global economic recovery continue to linger. Crude oil extended its losses and remaining mired beneath the $70 per barrel level, tumbling to $62.38 per barrel.
Safe haven flows continued to dictate direction in the foreign exchange market with the Australian dollar, euro and sterling tracking equities lower. Risk aversion will be the key driver of forex flows over the coming weeks as traders digest incoming economic reports to gauge the prospects for an economic rebound.
* SendSend * PrintPrint * Add ToAdd To fffcba91-8b93-4ee2-b6f0-a1b153d8ee48 5 0 Today's Forex Market Signals
Feds decision yesterday in line with expectations albeit the comments made with reference to the economy improving lifted the greenback strengthening across the board today. Dow finished lower again and lower at time of writing in Europe. Asian stocks having a boost over night, Yen down from same information given from the Fed. Oil this morning trading higher at time of writing and if continues, could see a return to the $70 and $75 per barrel as uncertainty still remains. Data from the States later could see the stocks tumble further should the jobless claims come in worse than expected. Conversely, should we see an improvement, the risk aversion trades could see a lift.
For the Euro, need to break the support level of 1.3920 for a push to 1.39 figure, before yesterdays lows of 1.3890. Resistance at 1.3950 which if breaks and holds will see a return back to 1.3990/00. Await the US stocks for direction along with the jobless claims. Euro pound strengthening this morning heading towards the Tuesdays highs of 85.95/00, along with the cross with the Yen which would indicate that the preference would be to see a return to the 1.4020 level.
For cable, seen a sell off this morning hitting lows of 1.6240/45. Awaiting US opening for direction along with the jobless claims which if better than expected will give a boost back to the pound and 1.63 and 1.63.30/35 (38.2% fib level for the last two days). Support at 1.6250 which if breaks and holds, expect a move back towards 1.62/10. Euro pound struggling to break the current levels of 85.70, good selling opportunity back towards the 85.30 level (if breaks the 85.40 level)
Yen this morning being hit reference the comments made from the Fed regarding the 'improving economy'. Currently trading at 96 35/40. Head and shoulder pattern forming at current levels, which if breaks, will see a move back to the 95.90 level. Resistance at 96.60 which if breaks and holds, could see a move back towards 96.70 ahead of 97.20. Details by fxstreet.com
For the Euro, need to break the support level of 1.3920 for a push to 1.39 figure, before yesterdays lows of 1.3890. Resistance at 1.3950 which if breaks and holds will see a return back to 1.3990/00. Await the US stocks for direction along with the jobless claims. Euro pound strengthening this morning heading towards the Tuesdays highs of 85.95/00, along with the cross with the Yen which would indicate that the preference would be to see a return to the 1.4020 level.
For cable, seen a sell off this morning hitting lows of 1.6240/45. Awaiting US opening for direction along with the jobless claims which if better than expected will give a boost back to the pound and 1.63 and 1.63.30/35 (38.2% fib level for the last two days). Support at 1.6250 which if breaks and holds, expect a move back towards 1.62/10. Euro pound struggling to break the current levels of 85.70, good selling opportunity back towards the 85.30 level (if breaks the 85.40 level)
Yen this morning being hit reference the comments made from the Fed regarding the 'improving economy'. Currently trading at 96 35/40. Head and shoulder pattern forming at current levels, which if breaks, will see a move back to the 95.90 level. Resistance at 96.60 which if breaks and holds, could see a move back towards 96.70 ahead of 97.20. Details by fxstreet.com
- Friday, June 26, 2009
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Manager/Market Strategist, Saxo BankDavid Karsbøl holds a Master of Science degree (Economics) from the University of Copenhagen and has previously been employed as an insurance analyst. Mr Karsbøl works with fundamental analysis and research and contributes to Saxo Bank's strategy products. He also develops and maintains macroeconomic models and a number of trading models, which are designed to profit from co-variations between the Forex and fixed income markets. Mr Karsbøl is regularly appears on major financial news networks and comments several days a week on the financial markets via Saxo Bank's live Market Call webcast. He is a native Danish speaker and is fluent in English.
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Asset Management, Saxo BankJohn Hardy publishes daily comments on the Forex market. Mr Hardy's analysis attempts to overlay short term technical developments and fundamental event risks with longer term themes and trends in the G-10 currencies. Mr Hardy considers inter-market correlations as paramount in understanding moves in the Forex space, so the analysis draws on a number of models based on other markets and gauges their correlation with Forex markets in an attempt to detect inefficiencies that may provide trading opportunities.Details by forextrading.com
U.S. Economy Recovery, Crude Oil Push Canadian Dollar Up
The loonie continued its rally after a day of losses as the main trading partner of Canada, the United States, is showing signs of an economic revival.
The Canadian currency has been benefiting from several international factors that are helping it to build the strongest bullish pattern in decades against the main currencies. Canada is one of the main global oil exporters, and since the demand for oil has rebounded in April, the loonie is rocketing against currencies like the greenback and the euro, helped also by the stocks rally, which add attractiveness to the Canadian dollar. After signs of economic recovery in Asia, now speculations about United States interest rate policy, are fueling demand for more risk in equities market, creating a perfect scenario for the loonie to grow stronger.
According to specialists, the current scenario for the loonie might be the most favorable in years, firstly the growing demand for oil, and now, being considered as a satellite for the U.S. economy, it is extremely likely that the loonie will remain stronger if its main trade partner finds a quick way out of recession, and signs that an eventual interest rate raise from the Federal Reserve are already having a positive impact for the Canadian currency.
- Monday, June 15, 2009
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Yen Continues Fall as Demand For Yield Rises
The Japanese currency had a day of losses against major currencies and higher-yielding assets as the global slump eases, improving investor’s confidence to take riskier positions.
The yen has been suffering multiple sessions of losses since the global recession gave its first signs of ending in the beginning of April, and being regarded by traders as a safe refuge for times of uncertainty and crisis, the Japanese currency lost most of the gains it posted during the worst moments of the crisis, in the last semester of the past year. The pound climbed significantly against the yen as the political crisis in the United Kingdom seems rather controlled. Australia’s dollar climbed versus the yen as an industry report showed an increase in the consumer confidence.
Currency specialists affirm that refuge currencies like the Japanese and the North American may enter an important downtrend, as risk aversion is declining, favoring emergent market currencies like the South Korean won, and commodity-linked currencies like the Australian. It is very likely that a weaken yen will follow for the next months, according to specialists, even if the Japanese economy shows relevant signs of recovery, it won’t probably be able to sustain the yen at high levels, since the outflow of investors towards higher-yielding positions abroad will tend to be much larger.
Dollar Climbs Before G-8 Meeting
After several days of losses, the greenback rebounded, ending the week with a rather neutral performance before a G-8 meeting, where Timothy Geithner may state in favor of a strong U.S. dollar.
The U. S. dollar pared its weekly losses after a Wall Street journal report affirming that the U.S. government will continue its policy to avoid bond purchases, resisting the pressure in order to control the supply of dollars. Another factor favoring the greenback is the incoming G-8 finance ministers meeting, in which speculations lead to believe that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner may suggest that a strong dollar is likely to be positive for a healthy world economic scenario. Comments in European financial organizations about the problems of a strong euro to exporters also helped the dollar to pair its weekly losses.
Analysts evaluate the speculations towards the G-8 meeting as a consequence of fundamental and technical factors moving the euro-dollar currency pair, as the market sentiment is not willing to push the euro to higher levels. A part from the problematic scenario the euro brings to the European agonizing exporting market, other factors such as the obscure future of the U.S. dollar as the main world currency make it hard to define in which direction the U.S. will point towards the next months.
South African Rand Post Gains as Emergent Markets Attractiveness Rise
The South African rand had a third consecutive day of positive performances as the global economic conditions are evidently improving, adding attractiveness to emergent market currencies.
The rand is one of the most volatile and influenced by the international world economic scenario among the most traded currencies, and a numbers of factors is helping the South African to climb since this April. Being one of the most liquid currencies available for trading, the South African rand is currently highly attractive, since interest rates in developed nations are rather low, and the economic recovery as its being perceived by traders decreased risk aversion in financial markets, adding to the already interesting profile of the rand. The current spiking oil price and this week’s U.S. reports added confidence to purchase currencies like the Brazilian Real and the South African rand, thanks to their high-yielding profile.
Analysts refer to the South African rand as a currency which is highly subjected to the international situation of the world economy. The richest African nation is a commodity exporter, without a high political influence internationally, being the domestic country’s conditions not so influential as the conditions in the United States for example. It is likely that the South African rand will remain strong as long as the investors continue their confident bullish pattern of asset purchasing.
USD/ZAR traded at 7.9808 as of 4:10 p.m. GMT this Thursday rising from a previous price of 8.1085. The rand already gained 19 percent against the dollar since the beggining of the year.
Canadian Dollar Falls as Crude Oil Price Declines
The loonie posted the sharpest fall in 4 days against all major currencies, interrupting a bullish trend as the price of crude oil stopped its rally, damping demand for the Canadian currency high-yielding profile.
The Canadian dollar had a day of negative performance after Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney stated that a strong loonie may affect the Canadian economic, as exporters would lose competitiveness having less significant profit margins. The Bank of Canada may take measures to stop the national currency rally which has started since the demand for commodities improved in April, Carney also eased the expectations for a quick world economic recovery, in an attempt to control investors’ bullish sentiment towards the Canadian dollar. The loonie, among the main six traded currencies, posted the highest gains related to the commodities and stocks rally that were triggered by signs of an economic recovery coming firstly in Asia, followed by emergent markets and Europe.
It is natural that the Canadian dollar is losing strength, according to economists, the rally it witnessed was too sharp, and after Carney’s declarations together with a correction movement in the oil price, the loonie was totally unable to keep its bullish pattern. Even thought analysts are uncertain about Canada’s dollar future, it is well agreed that some factors will stop or at least ease its current strength.
USD/CAD closed the session at 1.1181 from Thursday’s rate of 1.1015, ending this week with a virtually neutral performance.
If you want to comment on the Canadian dollar’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.
FOREXYARD News Center
Dollar Up as Russia Sees No Other Alternative to the U.S. Currency
Monday, 15 Jun 2009
The EUR came under selling pressure against the greenback on Monday after the UK Daily Telegraph reported on its website that Germany's top industrial group has warned that Germany's credit crunch is deepening. The dollar also drew some support after Russia's Finance Minister said the nation has full confidence in the U.S. currency. His remarks came ahead of the first summit of leaders of Russia, China, India and Brazil on Tuesday, at which the leaders are expected to discuss issues including foreign reserve diversification.
Asian markets rise on U.S. consumer Confidence; Euro and Pound hold at high levels
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Asian markets are going through gains on Wednesday buoyed by upbeat U.S. Consumer confidence figures and the improvement on Japanese merchandise Trade Data, which has diminished the impact of North Korean missile test. On the currency side, Euro and Pound remain floating at high levels.Japanese Nikkei Index adds 1.5%, as buy orders increased after Japanese trade figures were released. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index soared 4%. South Korean Kospi Index edges down 0.2% weighed by nuclear test by their northern neighbors.Investor's optimism increased considerably after U.S. consumer's confidence rose in May to itts highest level since September, showing that Americans start to feel more confident about the outlook of economy. Furthermore, Japanese exports rose 39.1% year on year in April, against market expectations of a 41.9% decline.Euro and Pound, consolidating at mid-term highsEUR/USD has remained moving in a range from 1.3950 to 1.400 after having recovered on yesterday's U.S. session from 1.3855 intra-day low. The Euro is trading at 5-month high after last week's rally from 1.3420.GBP/USD rose during Asian session to a fresh 6-month high at 1.5980. The Pound has been rallying continuously for the last month, and from 1.4397 low on April 22, the Sterling has risen to levels right below 1.6000.USD/JPY has finally broken above resistance area at 95.10/30 andfd the paitr trades at intra-week high at levels around 95.40 at the time of writing.
- Wednesday, May 27, 2009
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GBP/USD gains fresh high
FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – GBP/USD, fresh high for the pair in the first hours of Asia, corrective movements seem quite limited in the pair that looks decide to regain the 1.60, thus bigger time frames indicators are presenting divergences.“1.6000 first resistance above actual high, is followed by 1.6040 zone, where we could see the 38.2% retracement of the last monthly free fall from 2.0158 to 1.3502,” said Valeria Bednarik, collaborator at FXstreet.com. Level should offer some rebound at least as a first attempt. Despite divergences, downside correction don’t seem likely at this time. details at this site FXstreet.com
EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 5.6.09
The EUR/USD’s rally topped out yesterday as we expected, with the S&P futures hesitating at 900 while investors await Thursday’s flood of stress test news and economic data. Yesterday’s decline came on minimal volume, showing there is presently insufficient conviction behind the pullback to send the currency pair tumbling. The EUR/USD is stabilizing above Monday’s lows, and could bounce back a bit and trade sideway’s between now and the ECB’s meeting on Thursday. We maintain our bullish outlook on the EUR/USD since no key fundamentals were broken and the momentum remains to the upside with the currency pair trading comfortably above our uptrend lines.
- Sunday, May 10, 2009
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Crude Daily Commentary for 5.6.09
Crude futures continued their consolidation yesterday on marginal volume. However, yesterday’s volume was substantially higher than Monday’s meaning we could see large activity and volatility today. The futures are attempting to position themselves for a rally as they realize April highs suddenly aren’t so far away. If the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and crude inventories each beat analyst expectations, crude futures could push nicely above May highs towards our 3rd tier uptrend line.
GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders
GBP/USD was trading in the range of 1.5150-1.4980 area early in this week .It is expected to make highly volatile moves today during the BOE and ECB interest rate announcement time and also during ECB press conference time.
GBP/USD is expected to break the initial high (1.5156) and low (1.5101) set for the day during European and US sessions. A low in the range of 1.4850-1.4900 could be formed during European session and a high of 1.5200-1.5270 could be formed during US session before tomorrow another big event NFP data release.
Gold Daily Commentary for 5.7.09
Gold has surged higher in reaction to the surprise addition of funds to the BOE’s quantitative easing operation. In addition to the BOE’s decision, the ECB has announced the implementation of alternative liquidity measures of its own. The ramp up in liquidity around the globe is creating fear of future inflation, which in turn is boosting the price of gold.
GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 5.7.09
The Pound is experienced relative weakness across the board after the BOE announced it will add $50 billion to its present quantitative easing operation to make a grand total of $125 billion. While analysts expected the BOE to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at .50%, the additional funds for quantitative easing caught investors a bit off-guard. Boosting quantitative easing could indicate that deflationary pressures are stronger than expected, meaning the British economy is still facing some unforeseen difficulties. The Cable pulled back from its rally on strong volume in response to the news.
India’s Forex Reserves Declined By $1.39 Bn
The figures disclosed by the weekly statistical supplement released by the Central Bank (RBI) showed that India’s foreign exchange reserves for the week ended May 01 has declined by $1.39 billion to $251.702 billion.
It should be noted that the reserves came up by $631 million to $253.091 billion during the week ended April 24.
The reports said that the recent fall in foreign exchange reserves was mainly due to a revaluation of reserves and a reduction in price of gold assets held by RBI.
Dollar Falls to One-Month Low as Jobs Data Pare Safety Demand
May 8 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar declined to a one-month low against the euro as a government report showed U.S. employers cut fewer jobs last month than economists forecast, reducing demand for the safety of the greenback.
Canada’s currency advanced to the highest versus the greenback since November on the nation’s unexpected addition of jobs in April. The yen slid versus all but two of the 16 most actively traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg and touched a seven-month low against Australia’s dollar this week as evidence the recession is easing spurred demand for higher yields.
“The prevailing flow now is negative for the dollar, negative for the yen, positive for the commodity-linked currencies and higher yielders,” said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in New York. “Right now the report is given a positive spin by the market. The market is grabbing on the green-shoot rally.”
The dollar lost 0.6 percent to $1.3473 versus the euro at 10:22 a.m. in New York, from $1.3390 yesterday. It touched $1.3516, the weakest level since April 6. The U.S. currency traded at 99.14 yen, compared with 99.12. The euro increased 0.7 percent to 133.64 yen, from 132.71.
The euro-dollar exchange rate rose today above its 200-day moving average for the first time since December.
Brazil’s real advanced as much as 1.6 percent to 2.0814 per dollar and the South Korean gained 1.5 percent to 1,245.50, the strongest levels since October, as signs the global slump may be ending encouraged investors to purchase emerging-market assets.
Dollar Index
The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, fell 0.7 percent this week to 83.390.
U.S. companies eliminated 539,000 jobs in April after a decrease of 699,000 in the previous month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a drop of 600,000. The unemployment rate increased to 8.9 percent.
“Things are improving a little bit faster than people were expecting,” said Sebastien Galy, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas Securities SA in New York. “People have been so bearish on the euro in general. Indeed, what we’re seeing is euro-dollar breaking higher, and our recommendation is to buy the euro.” The euro may rise to $1.40 in two weeks, he said.
The dollar was headed for a third weekly decline versus the euro, weakening 1.6 percent in the longest losing streak this year. Against the yen, the dollar was little changed this week, while the euro rose 1.7 percent.
Hiring in Canada
The Canadian dollar increased as much as 1.1 percent to C$1.1572, the strongest level since Nov. 5, on the Canadian labor report. The currency was up 2.3 percent this week.
Employers in Canada added a net 35,900 workers in April after a reduction of 61,300 in the previous month, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The median forecast of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a drop of 50,000.
The yen dropped 4.3 percent to 59.08 versus the New Zealand dollar and 3.8 percent to 75.22 against the Australian dollar this week as a more optimistic global economic outlook prompted investors to get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and buy assets where returns are higher. The Bank of Japan’s target lending rate of 0.1 percent compares with 3 percent in Australia and 2.5 percent in New Zealand.
Japan’s currency touched 75.75 versus the Aussie yesterday, the weakest level since Oct. 7, and reached 59.51 against the kiwi, the weakest since April 6.
Yen and Toyota
The yen dropped 9 percent against the dollar this year after touching 87.13 in January, the strongest since 1995. Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest automaker, forecast today a second consecutive annual loss as the global recession curbed demand for new cars and the yen eroded the value of dwindling overseas sales.
The euro gained versus the dollar this week on speculation the European Central Bank’s plan to buy 60 billion euros ($80.5 billion) in covered bonds isn’t aggressive enough to debase the currency. President Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters yesterday in Frankfurt the purchase of debt is a “credit easing.”
Covered bonds, known as Pfandbriefe in Germany, are secured by property loans or lending to public-sector institutions and differ from mortgage-backed securities because they’re also supported by a borrower’s pledge to pay. They have traditionally been considered among the safest bonds available, allowing lenders to pay less interest.
Canadian Dollar Could See Breakouts on Upcoming Canadian Employment Figures
The Canadian dollar held up rather well on Wednesday, as USD/CAD continues consolidating within a large triangle formation and above key trendline support near 1.2300. A break higher or lower could be in the cards in the near-term, though, as Canadian economic data will be released on Thursday. At 7:00 ET, reports are forecasted to show that the Canadian net employment change fell by 50,000 during March, marking the fifth straight month of job losses. Furthermore, the unemployment rate is anticipated to have risen to match January 2002 high of 8.8 percent from 7.7 percent. Since the employment change tends to be a very volatile release, this should have the greater impact on the Canadian dollar, with a sharper than expected drop likely to push USD/CAD higher, while an unexpected positive result could weigh the pair below 1.2300.
- Monday, April 13, 2009
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Euro Slips Further as Ireland’s Credit Downgrade by Fitch Adds to ECB Rate Cut Risks
The euro remained under pressure versus most of the majors yet again as evidence continues to point to another rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) and a move toward quantitative easing. Yesterday we saw that the final reading of Q4 GDP was unexpectedly revised to a new record low of -1.6 percent from -1.5 percent, due primarily to downward revisions to gross fixed capital formation (capital goods investment) to -4.0 percent from -2.7 percent. We also saw, ECB Governing Council member George Provopoulos say during an interview that the bank’s benchmark rate could be cut by at least another 25 basis points, as he did not “see 1 percent as a threshold,” and that he would “not exclude that the ECB could go down further from this level if the economic environment deteriorates further.” Then, today, Fitch announced that they had downgraded Ireland’s sovereign credit rating to AA+ from AAA, and issued a negative outlook. While S&P already did the same on March 30, the news only highlights the extent of the economic woes for the Euro-zone. All told, Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are now pricing in a 36 percent chance of a 25 basis point cut to 1.00 percent during the ECB’s next meeting, up from 22.5 percent on Tuesday, but there is plenty of time for market expectations to shift ahead of that May 7 meeting.
British Pound Lags Ahead of BOE Rate Decision on Thursday - What to Watch For
The British pound slumped versus most of its major counterparts, despite the fact that for the first time since the summer of 2008, the Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged on Thursday. Indeed, both Credit Suisse overnight index swaps and a Bloomberg News poll of economists reflect forecasts that the BOE will leave the Bank Rate at an all-time low of 0.50 percent at 7:00 ET on Thursday. A look at their March 5 policy statement shows that the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects both growth and inflation to fall lower in coming months and also announced a new 75 billion pound asset purchase program, which included the buying of medium and long-term gilts. Ultimately, how the British pound responds will likely depend on two factors: whether or not the BOE asserts that they want to avoid cutting the Bank Rate to zero, and whether or not they indicate that they want to expand their quantitative easing (QE) efforts. Signs that the BOE is open to reducing rates further or signs that they will increase their gilt purchases could weigh heavily on the British pound, especially against the euro, while the opposite (steady rates, no QE expansion) could provide a boost to the UK’s currency and lead EUR/GBP back below 0.9000.
US Dollar, Japanese Yen Gain as FOMC Minutes Reflect Dreary GDP, Unemployment Outlooks
The US dollar and Japanese yen were amongst the stronger currencies on Wednesday, though we’ve seen little in the way of “breakouts”, as the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting minutes from March wasn’t exactly groundbreaking since there was little in the way of new details revealed. During March, the FOMC left the fed funds target range at 0.0 percent - 0.25 percent but the big surprise was that they officially announced quantitative easing efforts. The only noteworthy part of the minutes was that the FOMC staff projections for the second half of 2009 and 2010 were downgraded from the FOMC’s long-run projections for growth, unemployment, and inflation in January. While the exact revisions were not published, the minutes did say that GDP was expected to “flatten out gradually over the second half of this year and then to expand slowly next year,” and that this “weaker trajectory of real output resulted in the projected path of the unemployment rate rising more steeply into early next year before flattening out at a high level over the rest of the year.” All told, this suggests that Q3 and Q4 GDP results aren’t likely to show any sort of recovery, while the unemployment rate could breach the upper range of the FOMC’s projections of 9.2 percent, and perhaps reach double-digits.
ECB Disappointed The Market Again By Adopting Just A 25 bps Cut In April
To our, as well as the market's, disappointment, the ECB only reduced its policy rates by 25 bps to 1.25%, less than consensus forecast of a 50 bps cut. The deposit rate was also 25 bps lower, maintaining the corridor at 100 bps. At the same time, no non-standard measures were announced. We believe this was because the policymakers remained indecisive on what additional measures to be implemented and many of them still felt reluctant to put forward QE.
Although the ECB has slashed its main refinancing rate 300 bps to the current level at 1.25%, the lowest since 1999, since October 2008, it's monetary easing is still lagging its major counterparts, including the Fed, BOE, SNB and BOJ, whose interest rates have reached almost zero.
The ECB President Trichet stated that another cut is possible in May when it may also decide on any new non-standard measures. However, he did not give further details on the options, except for ruling out using exchange rate at an unconventional tool.
Concerning economic outlook, Trichet mentioned at the press conference that economic activities has weakened and is likely to remain very subdued for the rest of the year in the Eurozone. However, gradual recovery is expected in 2010. Despite further easing in inflation, the ECB's ‘inflation expectations over the medium to longer term, at levels below but close to 2%, remain firmly anchored in line'.
We believe at the meeting next month, the central bank will reduce interest rate by another 25 bps, thereby making the policy rate to 1% and narrowing the corridor to 75 bps (as it seems unlikely that the central bank will allow the deposit rate to reach 0%). Moreover, some non-standard measures will be announced and we expect it will be extension of the liquidity provision to banks to 12 months from the current 6 month as well as purchase of private securities. Although buying of sovereign securities is an attractive option, it's not likely for the ECB to do it at the moment.
Although the ECB has slashed its main refinancing rate 300 bps to the current level at 1.25%, the lowest since 1999, since October 2008, it's monetary easing is still lagging its major counterparts, including the Fed, BOE, SNB and BOJ, whose interest rates have reached almost zero.
The ECB President Trichet stated that another cut is possible in May when it may also decide on any new non-standard measures. However, he did not give further details on the options, except for ruling out using exchange rate at an unconventional tool.
Concerning economic outlook, Trichet mentioned at the press conference that economic activities has weakened and is likely to remain very subdued for the rest of the year in the Eurozone. However, gradual recovery is expected in 2010. Despite further easing in inflation, the ECB's ‘inflation expectations over the medium to longer term, at levels below but close to 2%, remain firmly anchored in line'.
We believe at the meeting next month, the central bank will reduce interest rate by another 25 bps, thereby making the policy rate to 1% and narrowing the corridor to 75 bps (as it seems unlikely that the central bank will allow the deposit rate to reach 0%). Moreover, some non-standard measures will be announced and we expect it will be extension of the liquidity provision to banks to 12 months from the current 6 month as well as purchase of private securities. Although buying of sovereign securities is an attractive option, it's not likely for the ECB to do it at the moment.
- Saturday, April 4, 2009
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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Steady after NFP and ISM Services, Sterling Lifted by PMI Services
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Steady after NFP and ISM Services, Sterling Lifted by PMI Services
Dollar remains steadily in range against most major currencies in early US session after the release of closely watched employment and services report. Non farm payroll showed that job market in US cut another -663k jobs in March, close to expectation of -654k. Unemployment jumped to 25 years high of 8.5%, meeting consensus expectations. ISM Services cam in worse than expected, dropping form 41.6 to 40.8 in March, comparing with consensus of 42.0. There is little reaction to the data as markets are still digesting recent moves. The greenback and yen remain generally soft.
On the other hand, Sterling is lifted by stronger than expected services data today. PMI Service rose much more than expected from 43.2 to 45.5 in March comparing to expectation of 43.5. UK Halifax house price dropped -1.9% mom in March, slightly deeper than expectation of -1.8%. Sterling is noticeably strong against Euro and EUR/GBP. As mentioned before, recent development argues that EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8635 has already completed at 0.9494 and further decline could be seen to retest this low first. In other words, Sterling is expected to outperform Euro in near term.
Other economic data released today saw EUrozone PMI services revised higher to 40.9 in March. Swiss CPI dropped -0.3% mom, -0.4% yoy in March, deeper than expectation of 0% mom, -0.1% yoy. Germany import price dropped -0.1% mom, -6.4% yoy in Feb, above expectation of -0.3% mom, -7.8% yoy.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4529; (P) 1.4638; (R1) 1.4831; More
GBP/USD's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 1.4844 in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.4647 minor support holds. Whole rise from 1.3654 is treated as the third leg of consolidation from 1.3503 and is now expected to extend further to 1.4984 resistance, and probably further to 100% projection of 1.3503 to 1.4984 from 1.3654 at 1.5135. On the downside, below 1.4647 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring pull back. But short term outlook will remain bullish as long as pull back is contained above 1.4109 support.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 1.3503 after GBP/USD completed the five wave sequence from 2.0158 (1.7445, 1.8668, 1.4557, 1.5722, 1.3503). Consolidation from 1.3503 is still in progress with rise from 1.3654 as the third leg. It's still uncertain how such consolidation will develop into but in any case, upside should be limited by resistance zone of 1.5722 and 38.2% retracement of 2.0158 to 1.3503 at 1.6045. On the downside, below 1.4109 will revive the triangle scenario and bring more choppy consolidation between 1.3503 and 1.4984 before resuming the long term down trend.
Dollar remains steadily in range against most major currencies in early US session after the release of closely watched employment and services report. Non farm payroll showed that job market in US cut another -663k jobs in March, close to expectation of -654k. Unemployment jumped to 25 years high of 8.5%, meeting consensus expectations. ISM Services cam in worse than expected, dropping form 41.6 to 40.8 in March, comparing with consensus of 42.0. There is little reaction to the data as markets are still digesting recent moves. The greenback and yen remain generally soft.
On the other hand, Sterling is lifted by stronger than expected services data today. PMI Service rose much more than expected from 43.2 to 45.5 in March comparing to expectation of 43.5. UK Halifax house price dropped -1.9% mom in March, slightly deeper than expectation of -1.8%. Sterling is noticeably strong against Euro and EUR/GBP. As mentioned before, recent development argues that EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8635 has already completed at 0.9494 and further decline could be seen to retest this low first. In other words, Sterling is expected to outperform Euro in near term.
Other economic data released today saw EUrozone PMI services revised higher to 40.9 in March. Swiss CPI dropped -0.3% mom, -0.4% yoy in March, deeper than expectation of 0% mom, -0.1% yoy. Germany import price dropped -0.1% mom, -6.4% yoy in Feb, above expectation of -0.3% mom, -7.8% yoy.
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4529; (P) 1.4638; (R1) 1.4831; More
GBP/USD's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 1.4844 in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.4647 minor support holds. Whole rise from 1.3654 is treated as the third leg of consolidation from 1.3503 and is now expected to extend further to 1.4984 resistance, and probably further to 100% projection of 1.3503 to 1.4984 from 1.3654 at 1.5135. On the downside, below 1.4647 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring pull back. But short term outlook will remain bullish as long as pull back is contained above 1.4109 support.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 1.3503 after GBP/USD completed the five wave sequence from 2.0158 (1.7445, 1.8668, 1.4557, 1.5722, 1.3503). Consolidation from 1.3503 is still in progress with rise from 1.3654 as the third leg. It's still uncertain how such consolidation will develop into but in any case, upside should be limited by resistance zone of 1.5722 and 38.2% retracement of 2.0158 to 1.3503 at 1.6045. On the downside, below 1.4109 will revive the triangle scenario and bring more choppy consolidation between 1.3503 and 1.4984 before resuming the long term down trend.
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook
After being supported at 1.3112, EUR/USD rebounded strongly to 1.3516 last week before turning sideway. With 1.2928 support as well as 55 days EMA intact, rise from 1.2456 should still be in progress. Initial bias remains on the upside this week as long as 1.3322 minor support holds. Further rise should be seen towards 1.3737 resistance first and break will confirm that rise from 1.2456 has resumed for 1.3822 (61.8% retracement of 1.4719 to 1.2456 at 1.3855). On the downside, though, below 1.3322 will be the first signal that rise from 1.3112 has completed. Further break of this support will put focus back to 1.2928.
In the bigger picture, recent development suggests that EUR/USD is still bounded in sideway consolidation that started at 1.2329, with rise from 1.2456 as the third leg. At this moment, there is no sign that such rise from 1.2456 has completed and we're still slightly favoring the case for it to extend to 1.4719 or above. But even in such case, upside should be limited by 1.4867 resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2928 support will indicate that rise from 1.2456 has completed earlier than we thought and will put focus back to 1.2329/2456 support zone.
In the long term picture, outlook is rather unclear for the moment. While 1.6038 is no doubt an important long term top, there is no clear answer on whether subsequent price actions from 1.6038 are unfolding as sideway consolidation, deep correction, or a reversal in trend. Nevertheless, note that another fall is still in favor as long as 1.4867 resistance holds and in such case, EUR/USD should at least have a test of 1.1639 long term support.
In the bigger picture, recent development suggests that EUR/USD is still bounded in sideway consolidation that started at 1.2329, with rise from 1.2456 as the third leg. At this moment, there is no sign that such rise from 1.2456 has completed and we're still slightly favoring the case for it to extend to 1.4719 or above. But even in such case, upside should be limited by 1.4867 resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2928 support will indicate that rise from 1.2456 has completed earlier than we thought and will put focus back to 1.2329/2456 support zone.
In the long term picture, outlook is rather unclear for the moment. While 1.6038 is no doubt an important long term top, there is no clear answer on whether subsequent price actions from 1.6038 are unfolding as sideway consolidation, deep correction, or a reversal in trend. Nevertheless, note that another fall is still in favor as long as 1.4867 resistance holds and in such case, EUR/USD should at least have a test of 1.1639 long term support.
Forex News and Rumors - Afternoon Update
Falling Retail Sales Push Down Pound
The British pound fell after February UK retail sales in February fell by 1.9 percent from January. One analyst in London described the outlook of the pound as “fragile”. More
Geithner Plans to Increase Authority Over Banking System
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told a House Committee today that the government needs more authority over the banking system to prevent the type of risk-taking that led to the current financial crisis. The following points are under consideration:
Establishing a single entity responsible for stability among major institutions
Enforcing more conservative capital requirements for financial institutions
Forcing investment companies of a certain size to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the US financial regulator
Establishing a framework for derivative markets
Strengthening requirements for money market funds
More
PM Calls for Creation of New Fund
While speaking at a summit one week ahead of the G20 Meeting, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for the creation of a $100bn (£69bn) global fund to boost global spending in a bid to protect emerging market economies. More
Oil Climbs to Four-Month High
Crude oil prices jumped nearly 3 percent today as continued stock market gains help soothe investor’s fears. Contracts for May delivery rose $1.52 to $54.29 a barrel in New York. More
The British pound fell after February UK retail sales in February fell by 1.9 percent from January. One analyst in London described the outlook of the pound as “fragile”. More
Geithner Plans to Increase Authority Over Banking System
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told a House Committee today that the government needs more authority over the banking system to prevent the type of risk-taking that led to the current financial crisis. The following points are under consideration:
Establishing a single entity responsible for stability among major institutions
Enforcing more conservative capital requirements for financial institutions
Forcing investment companies of a certain size to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the US financial regulator
Establishing a framework for derivative markets
Strengthening requirements for money market funds
More
PM Calls for Creation of New Fund
While speaking at a summit one week ahead of the G20 Meeting, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for the creation of a $100bn (£69bn) global fund to boost global spending in a bid to protect emerging market economies. More
Oil Climbs to Four-Month High
Crude oil prices jumped nearly 3 percent today as continued stock market gains help soothe investor’s fears. Contracts for May delivery rose $1.52 to $54.29 a barrel in New York. More
FUNDAMENTALS — THIS WEEKS ECONOMIC RELEASES
Most Recent Economic Releases Forecast Previous
USD Geithner Speaks at IDB's Annual Meeting in Medellin, Colombia
EUR Italian Bloomberg Retail PMI (MAR) 38.2
EUR German Bloomberg Retail PMI (MAR) 45.4
EUR French Bloomberg Retail PMI (MAR) 43.5 42.6
EUR Euro-Zone Bloomberg Retail PMI (MAR) 42.3
EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (MAR) -3.48 -3.40 (R+)
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAR) -34 -33
EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (MAR) 65.4 65.3 (R-)
USD Geithner Speaks at IDB's Annual Meeting in Medellin, Colombia
EUR Italian Bloomberg Retail PMI (MAR) 38.2
EUR German Bloomberg Retail PMI (MAR) 45.4
EUR French Bloomberg Retail PMI (MAR) 43.5 42.6
EUR Euro-Zone Bloomberg Retail PMI (MAR) 42.3
EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (MAR) -3.48 -3.40 (R+)
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAR) -34 -33
EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (MAR) 65.4 65.3 (R-)
Russian currency (Russian Ruble, RUB) in forex
Russian currency in Forex: how the volatility is prevented?
Russian currency is one profitable currency which has been recommended by innumerable large banks of the world. Russian Rouble, for the past 500 years, has been established as the chief currency of Russian federation. Currently, it is being promoted as one of the most intelligent investments of the season.
Belief of the banks
Most of the banks believe that in the coming future, there would be a dramatic strengthening of the rates of the rouble. The impact of the currency meltdown and the global recession along with the spiraling rates of inflation has been jeopardizing the quotes and exchange rates of different currencies, thereby weakening their establishment in the forex market. so let's take a look on what the situation of Rouble has been undergoing over the past few months.
According to the Bloomberg, it has been opined by the Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Co and Deutsche bank that the exchange rate of rouble will undergo an increase to 4 % in the coming year. Thereby, the weakening of the existing inflation would take place as the Central bank of Russia would have to face tremendous pressure, which would later only cause the rouble revaluation. Though, the essential opinions of the western bankers have not been evaluated so far. Alexey Uljukaev, the vice president of the bank of Russia declared that the currency purchase of around 20 billion dollars had been taken into implementation, as one of the pivotal steps to limit the strengthening of the exchange rates of the rouble in the coming future.
Response to Banks recommendations
In return to the recommendations of the largest banks of the world for the purchase of rouble, the Bank of Russia clearly opines that the entire case is purely speculative. The increase in the exchange rate, which has been predicted by the three banks, tends to be one of the major troubles for the Russian economy, as it would increase the rate of inflation, which already has touched 13% in April. At the same time, the rouble strengthening would also have detrimental impact on the exporting of gas and petroleum.
But the Central bank also opined that the large reserves, balance payments and important economic indicators would be enough to prevent the devaluation of rouble, in spite of the global crisis hitting the shores. The Central bank also promises that no kind of volatility would be added in terms of the valuation of the rouble.
Financial position in 2007
Delving into the history, it's revealed that in the year 2007, the bank of Russia had supported the rouble strengthening during the inflation development to 8.5%. But at present, the inflation rate is about to cross 13.3%, which is at least five times more than the cumulative average index. Though, the consumer costs, which are restrained, have still not been affected by the two continuous discount rates issued by the Bank of Russia. Thus, at present, the cost of growth of the rouble continues to be the crucial tool to fight against the inflation, as mentioned by the Central Bank.
Thus, the expectations of the leading banking cooperation have transformed Rouble into one of the most perspective and anticipated currency of the world in forex marketing. Though, the manner in which its demand is growing, it would automatically cause the strengthening of the rouble.
Thus, on one hand the pioneer banks of the world proclaim the rouble strengthening which might occur within the coming 6 months, the Central Bank confidently declares that it has means to control the rouble fluctuations, which would definitely play a pivotal role in Forex trading.
Russian currency is one profitable currency which has been recommended by innumerable large banks of the world. Russian Rouble, for the past 500 years, has been established as the chief currency of Russian federation. Currently, it is being promoted as one of the most intelligent investments of the season.
Belief of the banks
Most of the banks believe that in the coming future, there would be a dramatic strengthening of the rates of the rouble. The impact of the currency meltdown and the global recession along with the spiraling rates of inflation has been jeopardizing the quotes and exchange rates of different currencies, thereby weakening their establishment in the forex market. so let's take a look on what the situation of Rouble has been undergoing over the past few months.
According to the Bloomberg, it has been opined by the Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Co and Deutsche bank that the exchange rate of rouble will undergo an increase to 4 % in the coming year. Thereby, the weakening of the existing inflation would take place as the Central bank of Russia would have to face tremendous pressure, which would later only cause the rouble revaluation. Though, the essential opinions of the western bankers have not been evaluated so far. Alexey Uljukaev, the vice president of the bank of Russia declared that the currency purchase of around 20 billion dollars had been taken into implementation, as one of the pivotal steps to limit the strengthening of the exchange rates of the rouble in the coming future.
Response to Banks recommendations
In return to the recommendations of the largest banks of the world for the purchase of rouble, the Bank of Russia clearly opines that the entire case is purely speculative. The increase in the exchange rate, which has been predicted by the three banks, tends to be one of the major troubles for the Russian economy, as it would increase the rate of inflation, which already has touched 13% in April. At the same time, the rouble strengthening would also have detrimental impact on the exporting of gas and petroleum.
But the Central bank also opined that the large reserves, balance payments and important economic indicators would be enough to prevent the devaluation of rouble, in spite of the global crisis hitting the shores. The Central bank also promises that no kind of volatility would be added in terms of the valuation of the rouble.
Financial position in 2007
Delving into the history, it's revealed that in the year 2007, the bank of Russia had supported the rouble strengthening during the inflation development to 8.5%. But at present, the inflation rate is about to cross 13.3%, which is at least five times more than the cumulative average index. Though, the consumer costs, which are restrained, have still not been affected by the two continuous discount rates issued by the Bank of Russia. Thus, at present, the cost of growth of the rouble continues to be the crucial tool to fight against the inflation, as mentioned by the Central Bank.
Thus, the expectations of the leading banking cooperation have transformed Rouble into one of the most perspective and anticipated currency of the world in forex marketing. Though, the manner in which its demand is growing, it would automatically cause the strengthening of the rouble.
Thus, on one hand the pioneer banks of the world proclaim the rouble strengthening which might occur within the coming 6 months, the Central Bank confidently declares that it has means to control the rouble fluctuations, which would definitely play a pivotal role in Forex trading.
- Sunday, March 29, 2009
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Forex - the world's most traded market
Facts about Argentinean currency - Argentine peso.
Fact 1 - The law that re-established the gold standard requiring to supply all new liabilities with 100 percent gold reserves known as Caja de Conversion, conduit for uncovered paper money has passed in 1899 in Argentina while the entire system started working in 1902.
This currency began very fast development and starting from 1913 started its expansion throughout the world. Such regions as Africa, Oceania, the Middle East, the Caribbean and East Asia have created the currency boards while Argentina and South America had it.
The fears of Argentina government of a possibility for gold leakage to the countries having the gold standard suspended forced it to hold the system up as soon as at the beginning of the First World War. The currency board re-establishment in 1927 to 1929 and its following suspending in 192 caused the collapse of the investments to Argentina from abroad due to the stock market crash all over the world. The necessity of the system withholding seems uncertain by Hanke of 1995 as far as the Caja's and commercial banks' gold supplies were rather high.
The monetary authorities suffer pressure of currency boards like of the classical gold standard. Still the monetary authorities traverse among these pressures. The authorities seem to maneuver following the limitations of the board-like system of the currency of Argentina taking into consideration its latest processes. The monetary authorities made lots of attempts to establish the system of absolutely fixed rates, Argentina's rule-bound, but they were unsuccessful due to the annoying pressured described above.
Fact 2 - Argentina have created a currency broad system that was toughly tied with the dollar at the parity one-for-one. Argentinean government has relied on this system thinking that it would preserve its economy from any negative affection caused by a Mexican crisis. Practically they made sure that the crises offered by the canonical crisis model had no effect on Argentina. Another hope was that if there were not any trade relationships with Mexico then no harmful processes can spread. Though the currency has suffered a number of speculative attacks aimed at the unemployment rate reduction in Argentina as a consequence of the currency board disappearing.
Fact 3 - Before the July/August of 2001 the economy of Argentina used to be in periodical crises within 20-30 years. As much as eight plans of economy stabilization and a number of various reforms were held these years to defeat the hyperinflation and make the currency stable. The "dollarization" of the economy took place in Argentina by the late 1980s because of failure of any economy stabilization efforts. The Argentineans started losing any confidence in their national currency that caused transactions conversion into dollars. The prospective of the U.S. dollar losing its worthiness threatens to the American people either.
Fact 4 - The artificially supported exchange rate regimes, Asian ones particularly, have gained the momentum and preceded the 2002 currency crisis in Argentina. After the crisis in that region in 1997 the countries started a research aimed to find out whether any external measures can prevent such crisis repetition. The regional liquidity increase was the first attempt of the developing institution to make such kind of precautions and the further ones were aimed at the greater monetary policy. The currency board regime was set up in Argentina on the April 1, 1991 to exist until January 6, 2002 . This regime has created one for one artificial attachment of the Argentine peso to the U.S. dollar. According to Hanke and Schuler, 2002, this regime has not been an adequate currency board. There are three main criteria: the anchor currency must have a fixed exchange rate defined by the board; it must be entirely convertible that means that the anchor currency should be exchanged into or out of any currencies freely; the currency board must have a strong supplies with the stable assets, a foreign currency for instance.
Fact 1 - The law that re-established the gold standard requiring to supply all new liabilities with 100 percent gold reserves known as Caja de Conversion, conduit for uncovered paper money has passed in 1899 in Argentina while the entire system started working in 1902.
This currency began very fast development and starting from 1913 started its expansion throughout the world. Such regions as Africa, Oceania, the Middle East, the Caribbean and East Asia have created the currency boards while Argentina and South America had it.
The fears of Argentina government of a possibility for gold leakage to the countries having the gold standard suspended forced it to hold the system up as soon as at the beginning of the First World War. The currency board re-establishment in 1927 to 1929 and its following suspending in 192 caused the collapse of the investments to Argentina from abroad due to the stock market crash all over the world. The necessity of the system withholding seems uncertain by Hanke of 1995 as far as the Caja's and commercial banks' gold supplies were rather high.
The monetary authorities suffer pressure of currency boards like of the classical gold standard. Still the monetary authorities traverse among these pressures. The authorities seem to maneuver following the limitations of the board-like system of the currency of Argentina taking into consideration its latest processes. The monetary authorities made lots of attempts to establish the system of absolutely fixed rates, Argentina's rule-bound, but they were unsuccessful due to the annoying pressured described above.
Fact 2 - Argentina have created a currency broad system that was toughly tied with the dollar at the parity one-for-one. Argentinean government has relied on this system thinking that it would preserve its economy from any negative affection caused by a Mexican crisis. Practically they made sure that the crises offered by the canonical crisis model had no effect on Argentina. Another hope was that if there were not any trade relationships with Mexico then no harmful processes can spread. Though the currency has suffered a number of speculative attacks aimed at the unemployment rate reduction in Argentina as a consequence of the currency board disappearing.
Fact 3 - Before the July/August of 2001 the economy of Argentina used to be in periodical crises within 20-30 years. As much as eight plans of economy stabilization and a number of various reforms were held these years to defeat the hyperinflation and make the currency stable. The "dollarization" of the economy took place in Argentina by the late 1980s because of failure of any economy stabilization efforts. The Argentineans started losing any confidence in their national currency that caused transactions conversion into dollars. The prospective of the U.S. dollar losing its worthiness threatens to the American people either.
Fact 4 - The artificially supported exchange rate regimes, Asian ones particularly, have gained the momentum and preceded the 2002 currency crisis in Argentina. After the crisis in that region in 1997 the countries started a research aimed to find out whether any external measures can prevent such crisis repetition. The regional liquidity increase was the first attempt of the developing institution to make such kind of precautions and the further ones were aimed at the greater monetary policy. The currency board regime was set up in Argentina on the April 1, 1991 to exist until January 6, 2002 . This regime has created one for one artificial attachment of the Argentine peso to the U.S. dollar. According to Hanke and Schuler, 2002, this regime has not been an adequate currency board. There are three main criteria: the anchor currency must have a fixed exchange rate defined by the board; it must be entirely convertible that means that the anchor currency should be exchanged into or out of any currencies freely; the currency board must have a strong supplies with the stable assets, a foreign currency for instance.
American currency (USA dollar, USD) in forex
First of all, you have to understand what Forex stands for, that is, foreign exchange. This is also called FX. When you trade in the Forex market, one currency is bought while another currency is simultaneously sold. Sometimes the foreign exchange market is called an over-the-counter market.
When getting into the nitty gritty of the Forex market, we see that currencies often trade in pairs; for example the Euro and the USDollar or EUR/USD or the US Dollar and the Japanese or USD/JPY. With the Forex market there is no centralized exchanged. All transactions happen by way of electronic network or by telephone.
The US dollar could finally break the ice this week. This currency continues to trade on the near critical levels on the Forex market today. The Forex market is still waiting for a directional break. However, commodity dollars such as the Canadian dollar as well as the New Zealand dollar have begun to tumble below key support.
While important rate decisions are to be announced and consumption and employment indicators are to be released, this week may be the one in which we shall see meaningful breakfast.
Two sources are responsible for the daily turnover in the world: foreign trade and speculation for profit. Most of the traders in the Forex market go for the largest, most liquid currency pairs such as the US dollar, Euro, Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen, British Pound and the Canadian Dollar.
When getting into the nitty gritty of the Forex market, we see that currencies often trade in pairs; for example the Euro and the USDollar or EUR/USD or the US Dollar and the Japanese or USD/JPY. With the Forex market there is no centralized exchanged. All transactions happen by way of electronic network or by telephone.
The US dollar could finally break the ice this week. This currency continues to trade on the near critical levels on the Forex market today. The Forex market is still waiting for a directional break. However, commodity dollars such as the Canadian dollar as well as the New Zealand dollar have begun to tumble below key support.
While important rate decisions are to be announced and consumption and employment indicators are to be released, this week may be the one in which we shall see meaningful breakfast.
Two sources are responsible for the daily turnover in the world: foreign trade and speculation for profit. Most of the traders in the Forex market go for the largest, most liquid currency pairs such as the US dollar, Euro, Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen, British Pound and the Canadian Dollar.
Forex: EUR/USD: Dollar recovery halts; Euro back testing 1.3615
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – Dollar recovery has been capped at 1.3535, and the Euro has bounced up reaching levels above 1.3615, previous intra-day low.
If the Euro manages to remain above here, it could attempt a new attack to 1.3725/35 high. Above here 1.3795 (8 Jan high) would come into focus, and then 1.3854 (61.5 retracement of the December March decline). On the downside, reversal from current levels could trigger return to 1.3410, and below there, 1.3325 (Jan 28 high). Once below there, 1.3160 and 1.3078.
According to Valeria Bednarik, collaborator at FXsttreet.com, the Euro is prone for further depreciation: “Hourly charts are confirmer further downside correction for the pair, after breaking a short term flag to the downside. Low volume as traders await American opening, price is under the 20 SMA that is slowly turning down. 60 and 200 EMA the most, should hold the downside.”
If the Euro manages to remain above here, it could attempt a new attack to 1.3725/35 high. Above here 1.3795 (8 Jan high) would come into focus, and then 1.3854 (61.5 retracement of the December March decline). On the downside, reversal from current levels could trigger return to 1.3410, and below there, 1.3325 (Jan 28 high). Once below there, 1.3160 and 1.3078.
According to Valeria Bednarik, collaborator at FXsttreet.com, the Euro is prone for further depreciation: “Hourly charts are confirmer further downside correction for the pair, after breaking a short term flag to the downside. Low volume as traders await American opening, price is under the 20 SMA that is slowly turning down. 60 and 200 EMA the most, should hold the downside.”
Forex Brokers
MetaTrader 4 Forex Brokers — a list of Forex brokerage firms that support MetaTrader 4 Forex trading software as their trading platform.
PayPal Forex Brokers — a list of Forex brokers accepting PayPal on-line payment system as a way to deposit/withdraw money to/from customers' accounts.
WebMoney Forex Brokers — a list of Forex brokers that accept WebMoney e-currency system as the fast deposit/witdhrawal method, offering high security combined with the fast transfers.
Muslim Friendly Forex Brokers — a list of Forex brokers that try to be friendly to Muslim Forex traders offering "no-interest" margin accounts.
Forex Brokers with Web Based Platform — a list of Forex brokers that fully support Forex trading without installing any trading software.
Moneybookers Forex Brokers — a list of Forex brokers that accept Moneybookers electronic payment system as for trading funds transfers.
Forex Brokers with CFD Trading — a list of Forex broker companies that allow their traders to trade not only Forex, but also CFDs (Contracts for Difference).
Forex Brokers with Advanced Trading Platform — a list of Forex brokers with unique and powerful Forex trading software.
Institutional Forex Brokers — a list of on-line Forex brokers that are backed by strong and respected off-line financial companies.
ECN Forex Brokers — a list of on-line Forex brokers that act as ECNs (Electronic Communication Network) offering Forex traders highly competitive spreads.
e-gold Forex Brokers — a list of Forex brokers that accept e-gold payment system as the method of depositing/withdrawing funds to/from the trading accounts.
PayPal Forex Brokers — a list of Forex brokers accepting PayPal on-line payment system as a way to deposit/withdraw money to/from customers' accounts.
WebMoney Forex Brokers — a list of Forex brokers that accept WebMoney e-currency system as the fast deposit/witdhrawal method, offering high security combined with the fast transfers.
Muslim Friendly Forex Brokers — a list of Forex brokers that try to be friendly to Muslim Forex traders offering "no-interest" margin accounts.
Forex Brokers with Web Based Platform — a list of Forex brokers that fully support Forex trading without installing any trading software.
Moneybookers Forex Brokers — a list of Forex brokers that accept Moneybookers electronic payment system as for trading funds transfers.
Forex Brokers with CFD Trading — a list of Forex broker companies that allow their traders to trade not only Forex, but also CFDs (Contracts for Difference).
Forex Brokers with Advanced Trading Platform — a list of Forex brokers with unique and powerful Forex trading software.
Institutional Forex Brokers — a list of on-line Forex brokers that are backed by strong and respected off-line financial companies.
ECN Forex Brokers — a list of on-line Forex brokers that act as ECNs (Electronic Communication Network) offering Forex traders highly competitive spreads.
e-gold Forex Brokers — a list of Forex brokers that accept e-gold payment system as the method of depositing/withdrawing funds to/from the trading accounts.
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